What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses

Early voters are more likely to be firmly committed to a candidate. If you’re undecided, you wait, in other words. So I don’t think there are likely to be that many voters in the bucket that the Warren folks are describing. With that said, the timing of the debate wasn’t ideal given the popularity of early voting here.

In preliminary entrance polls, 82 percent of respondents say they’re confident that the votes cast in the Nevada caucuses will be counted correctly, while 16 percent say they aren’t confident. There’s a notable establishment/anti-establishment split here: Sanders is doing a lot better among the group that says they aren’t confident in the process, while almost all of the other candidates are doing better among the confident group.

I just got an email from a Warren-supporting group that is passing along a message from a Nevada voter they say cast a vote for Buttigieg and now regrets it. (Looks like the spin has already begun!)