Even if Gonzaga does stave off the unthinkable and avoid becoming the second 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed — and, to be clear, our model still gives them an 85 percent chance to win — the history of 1-seeds who faced early scares is not encouraging. Since 1985, 15 No. 1 seeds have beaten a 16-seed by only single-digits. Those No. 1 seeds went on to win an average of 2.3 games in the tournament, compared with 3.4 for all No. 1 seeds in that span.
