One thing that can be a little counterintuitive is how little first halves sometimes move lines in basketball. Both in our model and in the lines I’m looking at here at Caesar’s, Richmond’s odds have improved only from about 20 percent at the start of the game to 30 percent, despite leading by 1 at halftime. It’s a good start, but both in the NBA and college basketball, favorites often reveal themselves in the second half.
