FiveThirtyEight
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Micah, does that make Norfolk State the Jill Stein of this tournament?

Sara Ziegler

I swear to God, if this turns into a discussion of Trump in 2016, I’m leaving.

Micah Cohen

Well, Gonzaga is the favorite according to our model with a 27 percent chance of winning it all. (That’s just a hair worse than the odds our forecast gave Trump in 2016, about 1-in-3). So there’s 73 percent chance someone else wins.

So if Gonzaga wins, the model was wrong. And if they lose, the model was wrong. That’s how it works, right?


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