What Went Down In The First Round Of The NCAA Tournament

Well, Gonzaga is the favorite according to our model with a 27 percent chance of winning it all. (That’s just a hair worse than the odds our forecast gave Trump in 2016, about 1-in-3). So there’s 73 percent chance someone else wins.

So if Gonzaga wins, the model was wrong. And if they lose, the model was wrong. That’s how it works, right?

Michigan has opened up a 10-point lead with a minute to go.

I always feel better when all four games are going at once — it feels like the real March Madness. (In other news, Baylor and Norfolk State have tipped off.)