What Went Down In The First Round Of The NCAA Tournament

It really is wild to watch the NBA, as Nate mentioned earlier, and then see NCAA teams — like Providence just now — run plays for shooters to take contested 16-foot jumpers.

Michigan closed the half on a 16-8 run, but yes, that shooting disparity remains the story. Colorado State is 8-for-20 from 3-point range, while Michigan is 0-for-7. (The free-throw line, where Michigan is 7-for-8 and CSU hasn’t taken attempt, is really the only reason the Wolverines are still in this game.)

Our model has the Wolverines with a 38 percent win probability at halftime. That seems about right; 7 points is a real deficit, but I’m not sure you’d say they were outplayed, and the shooting luck may even out in the second half.