Updated |
What Went Down At The Fourth Democratic Debate
The Clintons still have equity with black voters. Despite a growing recognition that the Clinton era brought about changes that swelled the prison system, primarily with blacks and Latinos, the Bill Clinton presidency was a time of relative prosperity for black America. But as black voters demonstrated in 2008, with South Carolina as a tipping point, Hillary Clinton will not be judged as black America’s default candidate. At the same time, I think Bernie Sanders may be seen as too risky of a bet by black voters.
Farai, do you buy this argument that black Democrats just aren’t familiar with Sanders and that’s why they don’t support him?
As Sanders talks about general election polling, it should be remembered that it is highly un-predictive. Sure, Sanders may end up beating Donald Trump, but the polling right now shouldn’t be used to support that argument. The average error for general election polling at this point is over 10 percentage points.
| POLLING ACCURACY A YEAR BEFORE THE ELECTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ELECTION | AVERAGE GOP POLL LEAD | GOP ELECTION MARGIN | ABSOLUTE ERROR |
| 1964 | -50.3 | -22.6 | 27.7 |
| 1992 | +21.0 | -5.6 | 26.1 |
| 1980 | -15.5 | +9.7 | 25.2 |
| 2000 | +11.9 | -0.5 | 12.4 |
| 1984 | +7.2 | +18.2 | 11.0 |
| 1988 | +18.0 | +7.7 | 10.3 |
| 2008 | -0.3 | -7.3 | 6.9 |
| 1956 | +22.0 | +15.4 | 6.6 |
| 1944 | -14.0 | -7.5 | 6.5 |
| 2004 | +8.7 | +2.5 | 6.2 |
| 1996 | -13.0 | -8.5 | 4.5 |
| 1960 | +3.0 | -0.2 | 3.2 |
| 2012 | -2.8 | -3.9 | 1.0 |
| 1948 | -3.8 | -4.5 | 0.7 |
| Average | 10.6 | ||