MSNBC Democratic Debate: Live Coverage

Our staff scored tonight’s debate as a tie, with both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders getting a B+ grade. (Grades are meant to reflect how much we think the candidates helped themselves toward winning the campaign.)

CANDIDATE	AVERAGE GRADE	HIGH GRADE	LOW GRADE
Hillary Clinton	B+	A	B
Bernie Sanders	B+	A	B-

Personally, I was slightly on the lower end of the group consensus, giving both candidates a B. As I’ve said after almost every Democratic debate, I’m still looking for signs that Sanders can expand his coalition beyond his predominantly white, liberal base. And I didn’t see a lot of those; instead, Sanders was too willing to indulge in questions about who’s the bigger progressive, when almost half of Democratic primary voters identify as moderate or conservative. Clinton, meanwhile, spent a lot of time in the first half of the debate trying to defend her “theory of change” and making Sanders seem as though he was all talk and no action. It’s important long-term strategic work for Clinton to turn Sanders’s ideological purity into a disadvantage. But I’m not sure that it will pay immediate dividends or how the testier exchanges will play. It’s hard to know. As I said after the GOP debate last week, we’re in the phase of the campaign where reporters aren’t hearing the debate with fresh ears, and that makes it hard to know what voters at home will think.

The moderators tonight tended to step back and let the candidates question each other, so I tracked the topics being covered each time someone spoke, rather than by what the moderator said. Defining who counts as a progressive took up 20 percent of speaking slots, and discussion about the horserace and scandals made up an additional fifth of the comments. Still, more than 50 percent of comments spent on the issues is probably a win.

I thought it was the best debate for the things that happened toward the beginning: the two of them sort of poking at each other on questions of electability and progressivism. But I didn’t like some of the questions on points that I think voters won’t really care all that much about — TV ads, data breaches, scuffles with unions. They wanted Clinton to attack Sanders on that and she just didn’t bite and it felt like dead space in the debate. Although, I guess there’s only so much these two disagree on.

Yes, once they got their pre-written talking points out of the way early on, they gave the audience a fairly close look at their real selves, and not always in a flattering light. It was one of the best this season.

I found the one-on-one format refreshing — looser and more nimble than even the three-person debates with O’Malley, let alone the GOP debates with their much larger cohorts. The question is whether the congeniality these two contenders generally have shown each other (disagreeing on policy but not going ad hominem) will persist as these one-on-one debates continue.

I agree with Micah — especially when the differences in their policy positions are pretty nuanced.

I agree it was good, apart from the very boring section on politics in the second half. The best parts were when the moderators shut up and let the two candidates duke it out. They actually engaged with each other, didn’t just give their stump speeches.

No. I think the moderators absented themselves for long stretches and let the candidates compete on sentiment without holding their feet to the fire on their policy differences or acting to fact-check the claims being made (“Experts say,” etc.).

A two-person debate is just more likely to be engaging and substantive at the same time.

Seeing a lot of talk on Twitter and now on MSNBC that this was the best debate so far. Do you all agree?

https://twitter.com/jodyavirgan/status/695449374185254913t

I’m struck by Clinton’s repeated references to the age of Sanders’s supporters. I know it’s meant as an appeal, but it risks sounding pleading rather than enticing.

Why would Sanders name Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell when the candidates have named so few other Republicans in this debate? Well, for one thing, if either of these debaters wins the presidency, he or she will need to work with the Senate majority leader. McConnell is also unpopular — even in his home state, where 52 percent disapprove of him, according to a November poll by Morning Consult. It’s by far the highest disapproval rating for any senator in his or her home state.

One big challenge for immigration reform: The immigration debate is still stuck in the 1990s. The debate, for example, tends to focus on immigration from Mexico, but immigration from Asia has now topped immigration from Latin America. And for all the rhetoric, particularly from Republicans, illegal immigration has been largely flat for years.

It does seem, though, like a good way to underline her claim that she gets things done while Sanders calls for unrealistic responses — like Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder’s resignation. That message was picked up by this Huffington Post reporter.

I’m a bit more cynical, I suppose. As a Michigander, I’m really happy that presidential candidates are visiting and talking about Flint. But the timing is unusual — you don’t usually take off on the Sunday before the New Hampshire primary — and it seems like a way for Clinton to lower the media’s expectations for how well she’ll do on Tuesday.

Speaking of Flint, Michigan, Clinton is headed there on Sunday. According to Rebecca Leber at The New Republic, Clinton has chosen to make the water crisis in Flint a high priority for her campaign for two reasons: “to shore up the African-American vote, and to bolster her general-election narrative about the need for good governance.” Does that seem right?

A few moments ago I noted that economists are split on the likely impact of the TPP. But they aren’t split at all on trade: They’re for it. A survey of top economists from across the political spectrum in 2012 found that 85 percent thought free trade was good for both consumers and the overall economy. And 85 percent also believed that NAFTA, which Sanders opposed, made Americans better off on average.

Trending on Twitter: a pushback to this comment by Bob Cusak, editor in chief of The Hill. Many commenters are decrying it as sexist; he says it applies to all candidates. https://twitter.com/BobCusack/status/695434487463686150

How inside the beltway is the Trans-Pacific Partnership as an issue? According to Google Trends, there are twice as many searches per capita for the trade deal in Washington, D.C., than in any of the 50 states.

Economists are split on the economic benefits of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the big trade agreement known as the TPP. A team of economists from Tufts University recently concluded that the trade deal would destroy jobs and worsen income inequality. Earlier this week, however, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank, released what was probably the most in-depth analysis of the TPP’s impact to date. The institute, which is typically pro-trade, found that the deal would increase U.S. exports, raise incomes and boost the economy as a whole.

To understand how the water in Flint got so dangerous, and the public-health impacts so potentially enormous, that the crisis merited a question in the debate, see this FiveThirtyEight article by Anna Maria Barry-Jester, with graphics by Ritchie King.

Clinton says she supports the death penalty in federal cases but is more ambivalent about it at the state level. Federal executions, however, are rare, and it’s taking longer and longer to carry them out. The federal government hasn’t put anyone to death since 2003.

The commercial breaks give us a window into the political process. An ad by the group NumbersUSA advocating lowering immigration has been showing repeatedly during the debates, including this one. If Sanders’s position on immigration had a social media tag, it would be #itscomplicated. Sanders has stated: “I frankly do not believe that we should be bringing in significant numbers of unskilled to workers to compete with [unemployed] kids. I want to see these kids get jobs.” But one recent research study by academics from Indiana University and the University of Virginia found that immigrants help create jobs. Others point to the declining overall labor participation rate in America and argue that immigrants are diminishing the opportunities for native-born Americans. Japan, a nation which has below-replacement birth rates and does not allow widespread immigration, slipped into a recession again late last year, with many analysts arguing that it must open its borders in order to find a path to recovery. In the United States, of course, immigration affects much more than labor markets. A 1965 immigration act broadened access to immigrants from the developing world, who were previously largely shut out. Since then, our nation’s demographics have transformed.

https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/695452735701807105

There’s another interesting dynamic, too, which is that there are actually quite a view Democratic-Republican swing voters in New Hampshire. Unaffiliated (independent) voters can vote in either primary. Believe it or not, some of them might be deciding between, for instance, Bernie Sanders and John Kasich. Stressing how conservative all of the Republicans are on social issues might have been a good strategy for Sanders, since those independents in New Hampshire are fairly socially liberal.

Are we surprised that these two haven’t been going after the GOP candidates at all? Who would have bet that more than 90 minutes in, Trump would have just one mention, and Cruz and Rubio wouldn’t have been mentioned at all?

That’s something that probably deserves a whole post instead of a quick liveblog take! (And Harry has dived into this.) The short answer is that Sanders would probably cost the Democrats a couple of percentage points, other things held equal, but not necessarily produce a McGovern/Goldwater type disaster. The longer answer involves mentioning that McGovern and Goldwater weren’t just “extreme” ideologically but also very divisive nominees, so some of it would depend on how much Sanders was able to unite the Democratic Party behind him.

Nate, would Sanders really be a Goldwater/McGovern-esque general election candidate?

The question about whether Sanders can win a general election gets to the heart of the debate facing Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Clinton talks about earning the support of young, energized Sanders voters. And of course the question is whether some of these strong Sanders supporters will simply sit out 2016 if their candidate doesn’t win the nomination.

The inevitable Iowa caucuses question! Sanders said he loves the Iowa caucuses, but he thinks “we need improvements in the process [of the] way results are determined.” That’s something both the Iowa Republican and Democratic parties agree with — which is why they tried modernizing the process in a partnership with Microsoft to develop a results-reporting app. But no matter what developments are made, the Iowa caucus count will never be perfect.

Bernie just mentioned that Democrats win when young voters are excited. Indeed, winning young voters is really important for Democratic candidates. In her opening statement, Clinton listed several social justice issues — topics, according to Pew Research, that are especially important to young voters, who are racially and ethnically more diverse and secular than older voters. According to Pew, 18- to 29-year-old voters leaned Democratic in 2004, 2006 and 2008. They did so again in 2012. And Sanders won a big majority of 17- to 44-year-olds in Iowa this week.

Here’s the Des Moines Register editorial both candidates essentially agreed with. It called for an audit of this year’s caucuses, improvement to the caucus system but not, necessarily, an end to it.

As Sanders said, he has been active on veterans issues during his congressional career and until recently chaired the Senate’s Committee on Veterans’ Affairs. It isn’t surprising he’s been so active on the issue: According to data from The Guardian, Vermont has lost more soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan, per capita, than any other state.

There’s been a little talk in this debate about care for veterans. And while there hasn’t been a lot of talk about the Republican presidential candidates, veterans affairs is a spot of fundamental difference with the GOP candidates that either Sanders or Clinton could have pointed to. Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush support plans to to privatize elements of VA care.

Clinton and Sanders oppose privatizing the V.A. So did nearly two-thirds of veterans polled in November by the Vet Voice Foundation.

Finally, here are the projected vote shares for Clinton and Sanders:

And here’s our weighted polling average for New Hampshire:

Commercial break forecast update:

Can North Korea hit the U.S. with a nuclear bomb? It’s not at all clear — partly because of the “isolated” nature of the country’s regime that Sanders cited. It certainly could target U.S. interests in Asia.

Of the 29 Democratic senators to vote for the Iraq War resolution in 2002, six or seven subsequently ran for president: Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, and arguably Evan Bayh (who formed an exploratory committee before the 2008 race). Just one of the 21 Democrats who voted against the resolution would later run for president — Sen. Bob Graham, of Florida, who briefly ran in 2004. (Sanders was in the House in 2002, and did vote against the Iraq War resolution, while Barack Obama was still an Illinois state senator.)

https://twitter.com/michaelcrowley/status/695445436711047168

Sanders just said, “I fully, fully concede that Secretary Clinton, who was secretary of state for four years, has more experience. That is not arguable in foreign affairs, but experience is not the only point. Judgment is.” If he were vying for the Republican vote, that line of thinking might work — an October Pew poll found that twice as many Republicans value “new ideas” over experience in a candidate. But Democrats were split a little more evenly, and at 50-42, experience and a proven record won out over new ideas.

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/695440860972888068

As Clinton and Sanders discuss U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan, it’s worth noting the death of 10-year-old Wasil Ahmad, who was assassinated by the Taliban just days ago. Ahmad battled the Taliban with other troops in a siege and was killed in retaliation. The debate over American troops pulling out entirely will challenge the next president to figure out how — and, frankly, whether — we as a nation have the power to protect Afghanis already battling extremists without being on the ground.

While Clinton might have an advantage when discussing national security, it’s not an issue at the top of Democratic voters’ minds. In the Iowa caucuses last week, just 6 percent of Democrats said terrorism was their most important issue, according to the entrance poll there. By contrast, 25 percent of Republicans did so.

Carl, not only is this not Sanders’s comfort zone — it’s playing directly to Clinton’s strengths. That same poll found that even though 54 percent of Americans disapproved of the way Obama is handling terrorism, and 57 percent disapproved of his handling of the Islamic State, she’s the most trusted presidential candidate on the issue. The closest second is Jeb Bush — in a one-on-one matchup, 46 percent trusted Clinton more, and 43 percent trusted Bush more.

Sanders is no longer in his comfort zone now that the debate has shifted to how to fight the Islamic State and terrorism. In a December Washington Post-ABC poll, 64 percent of Democrats said Clinton would be better at handling the threat of terrorism; just 26 percent thought Sanders would.

I’m trying to track attacks in this debate, but I’m logging almost nothing from Clinton. Neither candidate is attacking the other by name very often, but Sanders has aggressively attacked “Wall Street,” the “1 percent” and “super PACs” at least 15 times so far. Clinton has offered tempered critiques of parts of Wall Street, but never quite strongly enough for me to be sure whether to tally them.