And Leah, if you count the seat that Democrats gained in Alabama in 2017 as part of this cycle, Republicans will be exactly where they started in January 2017.
Going to take a moment to appreciate how weird it is that we’re all watching the Mississippi Senate race tonight. The Senate map this cycle disproportionately favored Republicans: 10 of 24 Democratic incumbents up for re-election ran in states that Trump carried, while just one of the the nine Republican seats was in a state Clinton won. Yet, in the unlikely event that Democrats win Mississippi, Republicans could end up picking up just one seat.
That’s the site of one of Trump’s rallies, Nate.
Harrison County (Biloxi/Gulfport) strong for Hyde-Smith so far. Espy is at 38 percent, only slightly exceeding his 36 percent from Nov. 6.
Meanwhile back in Mississippi … the votes are almost all in DeSoto County, one of the biggest vote producers in the state and close to Memphis in Mississippi’s northwest corner. Hyde-Smith leads by 16 points after the combined GOP vote led by 30 on Nov. 6. But the way it’s been trending, she might pick up another point or two in margin in the last few precincts that haven’t yet reported.
Yeah I’m on Team Arizona. Very likely a “must win” for Democrats if they want to have any hope of taking the Senate, and likely to be highly competitive, perhaps with the added wrinkle of McSally running again.
Micah, we just had an open-seat Senate election in Arizona! We might even get the same Republican candidate!
I’d vote for Arizona.
Nathaniel, you have literally both my answers — North Carolina and Maine.
Whoa, electoral hipster, Geoffrey. I was going to say Maine — did the Kavanaugh vote really hurt Collins? Or North Carolina — can Democrats finally make good on an emerging swing state?
I’m all in on Virginia’s Senate race because I’m a homer. But also Texas, because — to bring it back around to our discussion earlier — maybe Beto or Castro decides on a Senate bid instead after testing the presidential waters. (Very much speculating here.)
I’m writing about that tomorrow, Leah! Don’t scoop me.
Never, Leah!
Is it too early to ask which Senate race everyone is most excited for in 2020?
Espometer back up to 6.6 points after some very strong results for Espy so far in his Hinds County base.
Nate, I’m just waiting for ONE county to have all its precincts reported so that I can make that very turnout comparison …
Espometer down to 5.7 points, which would imply that Hyde-Smith eventually wins by mid-high single digits. One thing the Espometer doesn’t account for, though, is where turnout is heavier or lighter, so Espy will need a very strong turnout from his base.
I’m definitely interested in seeing what happens in the bigger counties like DeSoto (outside Memphis), Hinds (Jackson), Rankin (also Jackson area), and Harrison (Gulfport-Biloxi on the coast). All of those except Hinds is usually pretty Republican. Republican strategist Austin Barbour, son of former GOP Gov. Haley Barbour, also highlighted the importance of Forrest, Lee (Tupelo, a place Trump campaigned), Leflore, and Washington counties.
I think this is shaping up to be a prototypical 2017-2018 special election: The Republican pulls out a win in a state or district that is deeply red.
I show the Espometer down to 7.5 percent. For whatever reason, the initial batches of ballots seem to be better for Espy than what’s reported subsequently.
Very little in yet, but Hinds County (Jackson) has begun to report. It provided 8.4 percent of the vote in the first round of this contest on Nov. 6 and it is very Democratic.
The Espometer (how much Espy is beating his Nov. 6 results by) is down slightly to about 8.5 points as more votes have been reported. Assuming turnout is proportional to Nov. 6 in every county — which, obviously, it might not be — he needs to beat his results by 9.4 points to win.
More than half the vote is in from Coahoma County, our first pure Delta county to report. It’s more than three-quarters black and could be a good proxy for African-American turnout tonight. Espy is leading there 89 percent to 11 percent after Democrats carried it 70-30 in the first round.
One of the reasons Republicans were confident that Hyde-Smith would win tonight was Trump’s two Mississippi rallies yesterday, which would theoretically generate enthusiasm among Republicans. But if you’re going to credit Trump rallies for GOP Senate victories in Florida, Missouri, and North Dakota — you also have to ask what happened in Montana, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Trump rallies did not result in a GOP victory.
Warren County (Vicksburg) is now almost all in and Espy leads there by six points, 53 to 47 percent. The combined GOP vote led the combined Democratic vote there 51 to 49 percent on Nov. 6, so Espy is running 8 points ahead of where the vote margin was three weeks ago.
But a lot of very red counties have reported some results in the last few minutes, to Hyde-Smith’s benefit. She has a 7 point lead over Espy with 9 percent of precincts reporting.
Weighted by the number of votes in each county so far, Espy is outperforming his Nov. 6 results by 9.5 percentage points so far … which is exactly what he’d need to finish in a tie tonight.
I don’t know if it will be enough for him to actually win, but it’s clear at this point that Espy is overperforming Democrats’ Nov. 6 totals. That’s no small feat for an oddly timed runoff election, which usually favor Republicans, and it could suggest that the Democratic enthusiasm we saw in 2017-2018 special elections is sticking around.
I don’t think I even considered the possibility that Cantor could lose in the primary. That is the biggest upset I can remember. Espy winning would surprise me, but not shock me in part because of what happened in Alabama this time last year. Actually, Ocasio-Cortez was very surprising, too. But Hyde-Smith has been so bad as a candidate. Cantor and Crowley were not that bad.
Bestill my heart for Ezra Koenig circa 2007
I was so unconcerned about the Brat-Cantor primary being interesting in 2014 that I was at a Vampire Weekend concert. Needless to say, I got very distracted at it about half way through when I checked what was happening.
Micah, I seem to see Smart People making the Eric Cantor/Dave Brat comparison. I think a Senate seat for a Democrat in the Deep South is most comparable to a party leader being usurped.
If Espy pulls this off — still a big if — what scale of an upset would it be? Trump winning in 2016? Bernie Sanders winning the Michigan primary? Dave Brat beating Eric Cantor?
As others have pointed out, where the votes are coming from is very important in a state with such racially-polarized voting. That might be happening in DeSoto County.
26 of 39 precincts now reporting in DeSoto, and Hyde-Smith is clawing her way back — she now leads Espy 55 percent to 45 percent there.
In the (still unlikely) event that Hyde-Smith loses tonight, it’s worth noting that the number of women in the Senate would actually decrease this year. One of many concerns about calling 2018 “The Year of The Woman.”
I think my favorite part of nights like these is when Smart People try to hedge all their bets while also writing juicy enough tweets to get RT’d.
WE. NEED. A. NEEDLE.
Definitely, Leah. Now up to almost half of DeSoto County precincts reporting, Hyde-Smith’s lead still at only six points (53 to 47 percent) compared to the commanding 30-point GOP edge there on Nov. 6.
I think we can all agree that the race tonight is more exciting, so far, than we expected it to be?
The thing is, my priors for what was “supposed” to happen in this race are pretty weak, so that’s why I’m putting slightly more weight on Election Night results than Other Smart People are. It’s not that I think they’re very reliable at this stage, it’s just that I don’t think the other indications for how this race would go are very reliable, either.
Two-thirds of the precincts are now in from Warren County (Vicksburg), where Espy leads 55 to 45 percent. The combined GOP vote won 51 to 49 percent on Nov. 6.
Espy back into the statewide lead by about 5 points with around 20,000 votes counted.
I will defer to the data experts on the returns. That said, in Georgia, Abrams’ staff felt like they did really, really well, in Democratic-leaning counties, but that Kemp did really really well and over performed in conservative-areas, particularly where Trump campaigned. Trump was in Biloxi and Tupelo on Monday. I will be really curious about those numbers when they come in.
I never thought that Hyde-Smith was going to run away with this race. She received just 42 percent in the general election compared to Espy’s 41 percent, meaning McDaniel voters would likely have to show up to the polls the Tuesday after Thanksgiving to support their second-choice candidate for Hyde-Smith to win. I still don’t think she’s going to win with huge margins, and partial county results haven’t changed my mind.
This is HIGHLY speculative, but it is interesting how the major GOP vote centers in Mississippi are urban/suburban areas like Rankin, DeSoto and Harrison counties. Those are exactly the kinds of places we saw defect to Democrats earlier this month. (Although, importantly, not in Mississippi.)
About 25 percent of DeSoto County’s precincts have reported, and Hyde-Smith only leads by six points there. In the first found of voting, the combined GOP vote led by 30 points. This is notable because DeSoto — part of the Memphis area — provided 5.3 percent of the total vote on Nov. 6, trailing only Hinds (8.4 percent) and Rankin (5.5 percent) in the Jackson area, and Harrison (5.4 percent) in Gulfport-Biloxi along the Gulf Coast. However, unlike some states, Mississippi does not have a handful of counties that provide a super-sized portion of the vote.
I think y’all are being too cautious on telling everyone to be cautious; these numbers are pretty bad for Hyde-Smith so far and they’re coming from different parts of the state. Yeah, she’s still the favorite, but Espy’s odds have gone up versus where we were at the start of the night.
CNN has early results from Leflore County, a 69-31 Democratic county in the first round. Espy is leading there 89 percent to 11 percent.
One thing Espy has going for him: He really campaigned as a moderate. He said that he would have voted for last year’s tax bill, which basically every Democrat on the Hill opposed and he is probably ideologically to the right of Doug Jones. He has not made strong comments on racial issues like Gillum did in Florida’s gubernatorial race. Now, does being black translate as liberal for voters no matter what you say, particularly in Mississippi? Maybe. But he has positioned himself well I think to get some moderate Republicans and independents to back him.