FiveThirtyEight
Leah Askarinam

Fine, 91 percent.

Nathaniel Rakich

Like 90 percent. If a white dude is nominated, no way he picks another white dude. And if a non-white-dude is nominated, a white dude is the safest VP pick.

Nate Silver

Here’s another, related question. What are the chances that the Democratic presidential ticket will have exactly one (not 2 and not 0) white dude? I say like ~75 percent.


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