FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Hyde-Smith’s 2,727 votes in Amite County come out to 83 percent of the votes cast for Republicans there on Nov. 6. Espy’s 1,952 votes in Amite are 98 percent of the total votes cast for Democrats there on Nov. 6.

Leah Askarinam

When we’re looking back at this race, it’ll be important to take into account Espy’s existing popularity and name recognition in Mississippi. He’s a known figure in the state, which can make it harder for attacks from the GOP to stick. Meanwhile, Hyde-Smith had been attacked during the general election by another Republican candidate, and may have entered the runoff a bit bruised. It’s not a neat narrative, but I think there are a bunch of factors that have made this race competitive that have little to do with the national environment.

Nate Silver

Clare, I’m not sure that a Democratic win would tell us all that much about 2020, other than that the GOP needs to stop nominating shitty candidates and that the Democrats ought to be running decent candidates everywhere just in case the GOP nominates shitty candidates.


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