FiveThirtyEight
Chris Herring

Feels like Virginia will survive a pretty ugly first 16 minutes or so — Gardner-Webb can’t score, and all of a sudden the Cavs can’t miss. UVA up 11 now.

Neil Paine

Geoff Foster

Sara Ziegler

That Gardner-Webb three ended a 12-0 Virginia run … and then Virginia responded with an and-one.

Neil Paine

Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane … that’s Utah State’s starting backcourt, right?

Tony Chow

So many exciting games and potential upsets! One team avoiding an upset so far is England, which leads Czech Republic 2-0 after an easy Raheem Sterling tap-in and Harry Kane penalty kick.

Neil Paine

It only felt like two years.

Chris Herring

Nantz keeps saying Virginia has had to wait two years to make up for its embarrassing upset loss — one that only happened a year ago.

Josh Planos

With a 3-point lead and 7:16 remaining, our model gives Tennessee an 87 percent probability of advancing.

Sara Ziegler

That’s a good call. UVA didn’t have big problems with UMBC last year until the start of the second half.

Ella Koeze

Virginia validating my long-held belief that nothing counts till the second half.

Neil Paine

Never has a No. 1 seed been so happy to take a 4-point lead over a 16 seed in NCAA history.

Tony Chow

You know how there were still more than 40,000 perfect brackets on ESPN tournament challenge after Day 1? I imagine if both Tennessee AND Virginia get eliminated right now, that number would drop to … 0?

Neil Paine

Kihei Clark really, really doesn’t want to lose this game.

Ella Koeze

Despite the rough first half, Virginia doesn’t yet have that dead, defeated look in their eyes that spells certain doom.

Neil Paine

UVA showing some signs of life to start the second half.

Josh Planos

Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams brought Tennessee here. They average a combined 35.2 points per game. Today, they’ve combined for 14 points on 6-of-16 shooting.

Geoff Foster

Colgate only 1 back. But the Raiders are without big man Rapolas Ivanauskas, who is injured and out for the game. He’s their top contributor, according to Kenpom.

Geoff Foster

Tennessee is struggling against the Toothpaste.

Jake Lourim

Just flipped to Tennessee-Colgate. Colgate is within 4, and Grant Williams just picked up his third foul.

Josh Planos

Will the Pac-12 see the second round after an abysmal season? Buffalo is really good on both ends and has the shortest average offensive possession length of any team in the tourney (14.4 seconds).

Geoff Foster

This was not my best bracket pod:

Sara Ziegler

The Buffalo-Arizona State game has also tipped, with the No. 11 Sun Devils up early.

Geoff Foster

Speaking of Fake News Upsets: No. 5 Wisconsin is only giving 2 points to No. 12 Oregon. That’s a virtual coin flip.

Chris Herring

Extremely talented club, but not one Weber recruited.

Chris Herring

Yeah. I like Weber as a person but don’t think much of him as a coach. Bill Self recruited that entire Illinois team.

Neil Paine

Love that Dee Brown reference Josh! One of my favorite college players to watch ever.

Josh Planos

Bruce Weber falls to 15-13 in tourney games (and 7-10 in tourney games without Dee Brown).

Geoff Foster

Also (I’m a broken record), the spread was in K-State-UC Irvine 3.5 points. Not as big of an upset as seeds suggest.

Tony Chow

And the No. 5 Marquette women avoid the upset, beating Rice 58-54 in overtime.

Geoff Foster

UC Irvine is not done. I could easily see it beating whichever squad wins Wisco-Oregon. This defense is a nightmare for opponents, so disciplined and tough. They don’t give up any cheap buckets.

Sara Ziegler

Great chart for K-State-UC Irvine.

Chris Herring

That’s a hell of a stat, Jake.

Jake Lourim

UC Irvine is only 196th in free-throw percentage at 70 percent, but the Anteaters showed up today with a 17-for-19 showing, including two big shots by Evan Leonard to ice it.

Tony Chow

The Anteaters move on!!

Nate Silver

I think they might disband the program, Neil.

Neil Paine

If the upset loss to end all upset losses happens two years in a row … what do you do? Clearly Tony Bennett is out, right?

Nate Silver

Technically speaking, Gardner-Webb would be an even bigger upset of UVA than UMBC was last year. Our model had given UMBC a 2.1 percent chance of defeating UVA has a No. 16 seed last year, as compared to a 1.9 percent chance (before the game) for Gardner-Webb this year.

Chris Herring

Wow. UC Irvine is gonna win this. Really nice upset win for them that will mark the first-ever victory in the tourney for the Anteaters.

Tony Chow

And missed dunks!

Geoff Foster










Chris Herring

One of the nicest passes I’ve ever seen in a clutch scenario like that.

Josh Planos

Holy tipped pass to set up that three for Kansas State. Unreal.

Sara Ziegler

Huge three from K-State there … but then a terrible turnover.

Jake Lourim

Virginia just gave up its third-most first-half points of the season with 36. Only Duke (twice) scored more.

Tony Chow

Chris Herring

UC Irvine drills a three with 1:25 left to go up 5 on Kansas State.

Neil Paine

Even though Virginia clawed back some, it is still shocking to see a UVA defense that was fifth-best in the country according to KenPom let a No. 16 seed shoot 54 percent against it in a half of basketball. Our model still gives Virginia a 63 percent chance of winning, though.

Jake Lourim

Thought for sure that Rice shot was going in. Great play drawn up in the timeout.

Tony Chow

Our first overtime! Marquette vs. Rice women will keep playing.


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