What Went Down In The First Round Of The NCAA Tournament

Though Jordan Murphy going down with back spasms could be a problem for the Gophers. He has been Minnesota’s leading rebounder each of the past four seasons.

Minnesota now up to a 94 percent chance to win after that 3-ball!

I sorta liked Vermont as a potential Cinderella before the bracket was released, but I don’t like them anymore. Florida State is just a bad matchup. They have 6-foot-10 Mfiondu Kabengele and 7-foot-4 Christ Koumadje and will play both at the same time. The Catamounts don’t have anyone in their rotation taller than 6-foot-6. How’s this going to work?

Speaking of things 20 years ago (as the announcers discussed the pre-cell phone era), this is the 20 year anniversary of one of the best Auburn basketball teams ever (and certainly one of my favorites): Chris Porter’s 1999 team that went 29-4 and came within a couple wins of the Final Four.

One thing to watch for Auburn in this game is how well they force turnovers and score in transition. According to KenPom, they were the best in the nation in opponent turnover rate, forcing turnovers on 25.4 percent of possessions faced. And they averaged 18.6 points per game in transition, according to Synergy Sports.

Our model didn’t really know about the Will Wade scandal beyond how it affected the team’s on-court performance, and it still was pretty down on LSU. (Although it did give the Tigers an 84 percent chance of at least beating Yale.)

Auburn opened the game with a 77 percent chance to win, according to our model.

Auburn could very easily be playing Northeastern if they win. That’s another popular upset pick.

No. 5 Auburn kicking off their tournament against No. 12 New Mexico State just now. Auburn is one of our sneaky Final Four picks. We have the Tigers favored against Kansas if that matchup happens (59 percent chance to win) and a respectable 38 percent chance to beat UNC if that were to happen.

Looks like 12 points in 8 possessions in the second half for Minnesota, and that’s in spite of two missed free throws.

With regards to sports betting in general, the public tends to put way too much weight on off-field issues. In these cases, sharp bettors will usually take this into consideration and let the line drop before pouncing.

Speaking of soccer, another Group I game got underway, and Cyprus is beating San Marino 3-0! Only 30 minutes into the game. And they say there’s not enough scoring in soccer.

Gabe Kalscheur, not to be confused with Phillies manager Gabe KAPLER. Really looking forward to see how good they’ll be with Bryce Harper and their other offseason pickups in what looks like a tough NL East. (What? If Tony can talk soccer, I can talk baseball.)

What upset? At halftime, LSU with a 97 percent chance to win.

LSU with a strong end to the first half.

LSU is just scoring at will in the interior. Yale airballs an open three and goes to the half down 16.

As an Ivy, I’m just assuming Yale has exclusively faced old-school fundamental teams and therefore hasn’t seen a Euro step like that before.

Yale is looking like a team that went 1-5 against Quad 2 or better teams. LSU is looking like a team that went 16-6.

😮

That Euro step was beautiful.

Yale is missing a lot of open looks from three (3 of 14 so far). Considering their rebounding disadvantage in this one, this will get out of hand quickly if some of those shots don’t start falling.

LSU also has five offensive rebounds versus Yale’s seven defensive rebounds — playing well on the glass on both ends.

Including that big dunk by LSU’s Kavell Bigby-Williams, the Tigers are consistently getting good looks inside. They’re shooting 11-for-19 on 2-pointers in the game so far.

I guess I shouldn’t be all that surprised by it, but man, LSU’s athleticism compared to Yale’s is something else.

Last year, I looked at schools that have lost first-round games from the most different seed lines. My alma mater, Iowa State, has lost in the round of 64 from six different spots — as a No. 2, No. 3, No. 8, No. 10, No. 12 and No. 13. That seemed like a lot to me, but four teams have actually lost from even more spots in the bracket. Arizona and Missouri each have losses from eight distinct seeds, while Providence and Princeton have been sent home early from seven different spots. Iowa State is joined by 12 teams with six differently seeded losses.

This year, four of our “top” teams have a chance to add to their totals. Popular upset pick LSU has never lost as a No. 3 seed, so if the Tigers fall to Yale this afternoon, it won’t have been in vain. And neither VCU nor Utah State has ever lost as a No. 8, but both will have that chance Friday.

The final school that could add to its total is, naturally, my Cyclones. They’re seeded No. 6 this year, facing the very capable Ohio State Buckeyes on Friday night. I’ll be rooting for them to win, of course, but if they can’t do that, at least they can make a big step in the bid to lose from every seed line.

Amir Coffey shot 30.6 percent from three and ranked in the 37th percentile in 3-point shooting efficiency in the half court this season, per Synergy Sports. He just went three-of-six in the first half vs. Louisville. Weren’t easy looks either.

Great offensive first half for the Gophers. Louisville had the 16th best defense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy’s stats, including allowing a 46.4 percent effective FG percentage. In this game so far, Minnesota has an eFG percentage of 60.

Minnesota-Louisville finished the half strong! A 4.8 on our Excitement Index.

Interim coach Tony Benford is also motioning for them to speed the ball up the floor almost every possession, so this one should be better on the Excitement Index.

I’ve only been watching Yale-LSU for two minutes, and the Tigers have already been hit with jump-shooting fouls. Seems pretty clear that they’ve been instructed to close out extremely hard on Yale’s perimeter guys.

Yale’s upset of Baylor a few years ago spawned one of my favorite sports press conference moments of all-time: Taurean Prince’s explanation of why Baylor got outrebounded by Yale.

Geoff, wanna retract your statement about Minnesota’s threes?

Yale is usually a great shooting team — they ranked 11th in the country in effective field-goal percentage (at 56.1%) according to Ken Pomeroy’s data. But today, the Bulldogs only started 2-for-8 from the field with a 31 percent eFG%.

I AM NOT.

Sara, are you emotionally prepared for how many times the clip of Aaron Craft’s drawn charge and game-winner will be shown during that one?

I can only hope a certain team from Ames, Iowa, does the same after being touted as a popular upset.

Clearly, LSU motivated by all the talk by eggheads like me about being overseeded.

I think LSU heard of the talk of being an overrated No. 3 seed and have just come out in F-you mode.

Yale with a … suboptimal start. The Bulldogs now have a 14 percent win probability per our model.

Minnesota hits back to back threes to go up by 4. They’ve nearly surpassed their team average for threes per game in this first half.

You didn’t find it Tuesday for Fairleigh Dickinson-Prairie View A&M?

Yale-LSU is on Tru TV. So I’m going to spend the next 15 minutes trying to find Tru TV on my set, which has become an annual March tradition.

The last time Yale was in the tournament, the Bulldogs beat Baylor as a 12-seed then hung around with Duke in the second round. They have a legitimate NBA prospect in 6-foot-6 swingman Miye Oni.

Well, Tony, LSU coach Will Wade is embroiled in a pay-for-play scandal, and his team is probably overvalued as a 3-seed, so the Bayou Bengals could be ripe for an upset in this tournament. They ranked only 18th in Pomeroy’s ratings — roughly the quality of a No. 5 seed — thanks in large part to a defense that didn’t even crack the nation’s top 60 in adjusted efficiency. (This showed up in the 51 second-half points they allowed to Florida while losing their first game of the SEC tournament.) Their NCAA path isn’t very easy, either: Yale is no pushover as a No. 14 seed, nor is potential second-round opponent Maryland, and we give the Tigers a mere 26 percent chance of beating Michigan State if the teams meet in the Sweet Sixteen. This is easily the lowest-rated top-three seed in the field.

Remind me why everyone is so down on LSU again?

We’re just about at tip-off for LSU-Yale, in which the third-seeded Tigers have an 84 percent chance of winning.

Murray’s son, Luke, is an assistant coach at Louisville. (Luke was at Xavier with Chris Mack.)

My dog is whimpering on the couch near the TV. I can only assume she’s crying for the wonderful city of Des Moines or the folks who hit the over on today’s game (136).

Gophers and groundhogs are the same animal right? Is that why Bill is here?

Great question! The scale is roughly 0 to 10, although it can exceed 10 in special cases. For reference, last year’s championship (when Villanova blew out Michigan) was only a 1.3; the thrilling OT Duke-Kansas Elite Eight game was a 7.4.

What’s the scale on our excitement index? Like, literally and in terms of games?