Updated 6:53 PM | Mar. 22, 2019What Went Down In The First Round Of The NCAA TournamentBy FiveThirtyEightFiled under March Madness Sara Ziegler 12:15 pm Louisville has a 68 percent chance to win our first game, according to our model. × The best of FiveThirtyEight, delivered to you. Thanks for subscribing!You should receive a confirmation in your inbox shortly. Error: {{data}}. Email Address Morning Distribution (Daily) Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight. Top Stories Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top stories last week. Politics Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories last week. Popular Stories How We Calculate NBA Elo Ratings In Formula One, Does The Driver Or Car Matter More? Losing An NCAA Tournament Game From Every Seed Isn't Easy, But These Schools Are Trying