New seed-based story for you, Sara! Schools that have gone out of the exact same seed in the same year.
We tend to think of upsets as being less likely in the women’s tournament, but a 12-over-5 has happened in each of the past three women’s brackets. In 2016, two of the four 12-seeds won their first game.
Kansas State goes into halftime on a 6+ minute scoring drought, having missed its last 11 shots. Tied 30-30 with UC Irvine, our model still gives the Wildcats a 69 percent probability of advancing.
The first close game of the women’s tournament (and a possible upset!) is brewing as 12th seed Rice is just down 1 to Marquette at the half.
Anteaters hit a first-half buzzer-beater to go into halftime tied at 30!
We’ve got four! women’s games going on right now, somehow all simultaneously broadcasting on ESPN2 (or separately on the various ESPN apps).
South Carolina is up on Belmont going into the third quarter, powered by Alexis Jennings to a 29-16 lead. And Megan Gustafson’s 19 points have helped boost Iowa to a 35-27 lead over Mercer at the half.
All things considered, this could be a lot worse for K-State. They haven’t hit a field goal in five minutes, and the Anteater defense is giving them fits. UC Irvine just hasn’t capitalized on the other end.
Coming up, you’ll see Tennessee, arguably in the midst of the school’s best season. The Vols’ two most influential players, Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, both dropped 30 pounds through “Rocky Top Fat Camp,” according to The Athletic. The program sounds less than fun.
In our men’s tournament preview, we said not to bet on Kansas State. Coach Bruce Weber’s Wildcats nearly made the Final Four last season, but they might find it tougher this time around. K-State has an elite defense (it ranks fourth in the country according to KenPom’s ratings), but its offense is prone to struggles.
Those sound like fighting words.
That sounds negative?
If an announcer described you as “built like a willow weed,” would you think that’s a compliment or an insult?
Kansas State is reeling with Carter Diarra and Barry Brown both on the bench with two fouls, in addition to Dean Wade being out.
Anteaters coming back!
Meanwhile, the OU-Ole Miss game has mercifully come to a close.
Next game up: Colgate vs. Tennessee. I’m intrigued by the upset potential just based on how well Colgate can shoot: They rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage. But the Vols are way, way more athletic, and Colgate’s defense has been pretty lousy against inferior competition. The Raiders will need to hit everything just about everything from deep.
They give off a very “spare AAU uniform” vibe.
I don’t know, Neil — I’m kind of into them.
The extra-wide shoulder panels on the Anteater uniforms are channeling the 2003 Buffalo Bills, and that isn’t a good thing. (Much as we all loved the Drew Bledsoe-to-Eric Moulds connection.)
K-State on a 9-0 run and pull to a 10-point lead before UC Irvine calls timeout.
The Norse are hanging around with Texas Tech despite getting almost nothing from their star, Drew McDonald. Averaging more than 19 a game on the season, he has just 3 points on 1-for-6 shooting and 0-for 4 from deep.
Now that this Iowa game is over, let’s talk about the other Iowa game. In the women’s tourney, the No. 2 Hawkeyes kicked off their tournament run against No. 15 Mercer. It’ll be a good chance for the country to see Iowa star Megan Gustafson in action. She already has 11 points and 5 rebounds after the first quarter.
The curse of Kenyon Martin continues.
Our win probability chart tells the tale:
Another disappointing NCAA Tournament for Cincinnati. Nine straight bids for Mick Cronin, but the Bearcats have a negative performance against seed expectation in seven of those nine. The only Sweet 16 was in 2012 as a No. 6 seed.
Big Ten goes to 6-0. Good sign for Wisconsin and Ohio State, which play later today.
This is undeniably true, Ella.
Now that my pick is about to lose, all I have left to say is that both Iowa and Cincinnati have ugly uniforms.
That should do it for Iowa. (Even after that three.)
Time for the Anteaters.
And that’s how you break the press.
It’s stretches like these that wonder why Cincinnati, in this case, wasn’t trying this full-court press the whole game.
Iowa almost turns it over again!
Entering today, Iowa ranked in the 99th percentile in scoring efficiency against a full-court press, according to Synergy Sports.
Or the Euro qualifiers.
That’s like asking why we’re not talking about Mets-Cardinals spring training.
How come no one is talking about the Oklahoma-Mississippi game? Oh, it’s a 24-point game. Never mind. Carry on…
Cincy’s press forces a turnover. They can make this a one-possession game with 50 seconds left.
Iowa having huge problems with Cincinnati pressure. This isn’t over yet.
Both teams are trying to win with the three. Except one team is very good at that part of the game (Iowa is 11 of 22) and the other is not good at all: Cincy is 5 of 23 after hitting one to cut the Iowa lead to 6.
Some big plays from Iowa at the end of this game. 98 percent chance to win right now.
Friend texted me: “Cincy screwing me again”
I think I’ve been very fair. 😜
Full disclosure: The person editing this live blog hates Iowa (as an Iowa State graduate).
Iowa and Cincinnati trading pretty 2-point finishes down the stretch of this one — and a big 3 for Iowa’s Joe Wieskamp.
Lovin’ the back-and-forth in this game!
On the women’s side, after the first quarter, No. 13 Belmont is hanging with No. 4 South Carolina so far. The Gamecocks lead 16-13.
Iowa leads 64-62, under 4 minutes remaining. Our model gives the Hawkeyes a 64 percent probability of advancing.