What Went Down In The First Round Of The NCAA Tournament

Gotta be Murray State, right? (Ja Morant!) Our model gives the Racers a 36 percent chance at the upset, the best for any team seeded 12th or lower today.

Among today’s day games, we have two No. 12s vs. 5s and two No. 13s v. 4s — notorious breeding grounds for upsets. Of these eight games, which one do you think will most likely stir some bracket havoc?

Welcome to the FiveThirtyEight live blog of the first round of the 2019 men’s NCAA Tournament! I will be joined by contributors Jake Lourim and Josh Planos, senior sportswriter Neil Paine and assistant sports editor Sara Ziegler. There may be some other guest appearances from Nate Silver, Chris Herring and other FiveThirtyEight luminaries. We’ll provide live updates and analysis of all the day games today and tomorrow while many of you are at work. (Go back to work! Actually, don’t. Stay here!) Today’s slate starts with Minnesota vs. Louisville and ends with Murray State vs. Marquette. Let the madness begin.