How The March 22 Primary Elections Went Down

Harry, instead of a gutter campaign, I see a slightly different theme than you do. And the theme is that Trump is someone who lives by making threats. He not only threatens other candidates — he threatens protesters, threatens donors, threatens the media and threatens the Republican Party. Considering how much he’s gotten his way, it seems to be effective. Politics apparently isn’t a field that attracts people who have a lot of backbone.

The Republican campaign seems to get nastier by the moment. And it might have reached a low-point late today. In response to an ad by an anti-Trump super PAC that featured Trump’s wife Melania nearly naked, Trump tweeted out a threat about Cruz’s wife Heidi. Trump soon after deleted the Tweet, but then reposted it to ensure it included the phrase “Lyin’ Ted Cruz.” https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/712457104515317764 Cruz responded to Trump’s tweet with one of his own: Can this campaign get any more in the gutter?

When Arizona begins to report results, keep your eye on Maricopa County. Over half of the vote came from Maricopa alone in the 2008 Democratic primary (55 percent) and 2012 Republican primary (60 percent). If a candidate has a large lead there, he or she is very likely to carry the state.

I’m in Washington state, where Republicans hold a primary on May 24, and just saw an ad sponsored by a pro-Trump super PAC called Great America PAC. It was a bizarre commercial, with a vaguely used-car-lot-from-the-1980s feel, asking voters to call an 800-number to say which of four reasons — immigration?, “straight talk”? — made them love Trump the most.

Yes, Clinton is the overwhelming favorite in the Democratic nomination race. But to the extent it’s still competitive, I wouldn’t neglect the importance of the Democratic primary in Arizona tonight. It has 75 pledged delegates available — considerably more than Utah (33) and Idaho (23) combined. There wasn’t enough polling in Arizona for us to run a forecast, but if Clinton wins by as much as the periodic polls we’ve had there suggest, it could be hard for Sanders to win more delegates on the evening, even if he wins overwhelmingly in Idaho and Utah. On the other hand, if Sanders comes fairly close to Clinton in Arizona, it could be a good sign for how he’ll fare in California, which has a massive number of delegates available on June 7.

Since it’s hard to avoid the NCAA tournament comparisons this time of year: The Republican primary in Arizona is a bit like watching a No. 15-seed (Ted Cruz) play a No. 2-seed (Donald Trump). It’s not unimaginable that the 15-seed would win — these things happen occasionally (like last week). If it happens, it will be hugely consequential, since a loss in Arizona would badly damage Trump’s prospects of reaching 1,237 delegates before the convention. But it would be a pretty big upset, and there’s a good chance that the outcome of the “game” will be obvious within a few minutes.

There are a 107 delegates at stake today in the GOP presidential primary — Republicans vote in Arizona, Utah and American Samoa. On the Democratic side, the contests today — in Arizona, Utah and Idaho — mark the start of a stretch of states that Sanders should do very well in. Here’s how we expect the night to go down, all time EDT unless otherwise noted (keep in mind, there are no entrance or exit polls in any contests tonight): Already happened: The caucus doors closed for Democrats in Idaho at 9 p.m. (The Republicans voted in a primary earlier this month.) We don’t expect results until about 11 p.m. According to our demographics-based projections, Sanders should carry Idaho by 20+ percentage points in a race that is tied nationally. Happening now: The polls in all of Arizona have closed. State law prohibits the release of results until 11 p.m., at which point the bulk of returns should come in. The polls have Clinton and Trump ahead, though the race is closer on the Republican side. 10:30 p.m.: The doors close for the Democratic Utah caucuses. It may take until 1:30 a.m. for the first results to be reported and until tomorrow morning for all the results to be tabulated. This is another state where Sanders is thought to be in a strong position. 1:00 a.m.: Thanks to newly implemented online voting, the Republican Utah caucuses won’t end until very late. First results should come in soon after 1, but we don’t know when the entire vote count will be completed. Cruz is supposed dominate in Utah. Early Wednesday: The American Samoa Republican caucuses. We probably won’t stay up for this one. Still, we’ll stick with you for most of the action. Grab your favorite caffeinated beverage and follow along, as there won’t be another Republican contest or Democratic primary for another two weeks.

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