FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

It looks as though Sanders has a good shot to get more delegates than Clinton tonight. Clinton is winning Arizona by 22 percentage points right now, which would translate to a net gain of about 16 pledged delegates on Sanders. And Arizona has more pledged delegates than Utah and Idaho combined. However, Sanders could net more delegates on the night if he wins Utah and Idaho by more than about 30 percentage points. Based on the results we’ve seen so far, he could fairly easily do that.

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