To follow up on my own question about Utah in the general election, Harry — yeah, usually I’d be super dismissive of a poll showing Democrats with a shot there. I can vaguely remember early polls from past presidential elections showing Republicans running competitively in Connecticut, Barack Obama with a chance to win North Dakota, and so forth. You take enough polls, especially in the early going, and you’ll get a few goofy results.
The thing about Utah, though, is that it’s dominated by one demographic group, Mormons, that doesn’t have a big presence in other states. And they have some plausible reasons to object to Trump — they’re a minority group in many senses, and Trump’s populist politics are potentially dangerous to any minority group. So it’s not that hard to imagine a big shift among that one group that isn’t replicated elsewhere. It’s easier to imagine Clinton winning Utah than winning Nebraska, for instance.
