FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

As I noted earlier, the first unofficial returns from Utah suggest that Cruz is going to win by a lot. Perhaps more interestingly, the early returns also suggest that Trump will run in a very distant third place. Nate, I’m usually not one to try and predict general election results from primary outcomes, but Trump seems to have a big problem with Mormon voters, and they make up the majority of voters in Utah. It’s not just that they prefer Cruz and Kasich to him; it’s that they really don’t like Trump or what he stands for. While I think Trump would still carry the very Republican state of Utah in the general election, I’m not sure I can simply dismiss out-of-hand polls showing him trailing Clinton.

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