FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

https://twitter.com/nfbrennan/status/712469813617147904

Answer

It’s very possible that Clinton won’t win enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. A Democratic candidate needs about 59 percent of pledged delegates to win without any superdelegates. That’s pretty close to the pace Clinton is on right now, but the second half of the calendar probably isn’t as favorable to her as the first half.

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