FiveThirtyEight
David Wasserman

When Will Trump Join the 50 Percent Club?

It’s possible that after tonight, Cruz will join Rubio in the small club of GOP candidates who have won more than 50 percent of the vote in a primary. Rubio achieved that feat in Puerto Rico, while Cruz looks likely to break that mark in Utah tonight. But guess who still hasn’t? Trump, who has won more than half of primaries and caucuses but has yet to claim a majority of votes in any one state. Crossing the 50 percent threshold anywhere would be symbolically and psychologically important for Trump. Now that this is a three-man race, his chances of getting there are better than ever. If Kasich turns in a very weak performance in Arizona tonight and Cruz doesn’t come especially close, Arizona could possibly be Trump’s “breakthrough” state in this regard. If not, Trump’s next opportunity to argue that the party is truly coalescing around him could be his home state primary of New York on April 19.

Filed under

Exit mobile version