How The March 22 Primary Elections Went Down

As a slight counter to that though, Harry, Trump’s margin in Arizona — which apparently held up pretty well in election day votes, although they’re taking forever to count — is pretty darn impressive. No, that doesn’t matter for the delegate math since Arizona is winner-take-all. But it’s a sign that the other campaigns have a lot of work to do if they want to win large, relatively diverse states.

Going strictly by the math (which may be dangerous if Trump picks up momentum after tonight), this was not a great night for Trump. Our expert delegate panel expected him to pick up 64 delegates tonight in the same projection that had him falling short of 1,237 after all the votes were cast. Our delegate target for Trump to reach 1,237 before the convention had him winning 70 delegates tonight. In reality, Trump’s likely only going to pick up a total of 58 delegates from American Samoa, Arizona and Utah.

It looks as though Sanders has a good shot to get more delegates than Clinton tonight. Clinton is winning Arizona by 22 percentage points right now, which would translate to a net gain of about 16 pledged delegates on Sanders. And Arizona has more pledged delegates than Utah and Idaho combined. However, Sanders could net more delegates on the night if he wins Utah and Idaho by more than about 30 percentage points. Based on the results we’ve seen so far, he could fairly easily do that.