How The March 22 Primary Elections Went Down

It looks as though Sanders has a good shot to get more delegates than Clinton tonight. Clinton is winning Arizona by 22 percentage points right now, which would translate to a net gain of about 16 pledged delegates on Sanders. And Arizona has more pledged delegates than Utah and Idaho combined. However, Sanders could net more delegates on the night if he wins Utah and Idaho by more than about 30 percentage points. Based on the results we’ve seen so far, he could fairly easily do that.

It turns out my wild dreams do sometimes come true. I was worried that we wouldn’t have results from the Republican caucuses in American Samoa before our live blog shut down for the night, but our friends at the Decision Desk report that all nine of American Samoa’s delegates will be announced as uncommitted.

OK, maybe I’m just grasping for some excitement on a night when Trump has swept Arizona and Cruz will sweep Utah. But, I’m genuinely curious as to whether Kasich can avoid the embarrassment of finishing behind Trump in Utah. Right now, Kasich leads Trump 22 percent to 19 percent, thanks to a strong first place finish in tiny Sevier County and a solid second place showing in metropolitan Salt Lake County. But Trump leads Kasich 27 percent to 16 percent in booming Washington County, which is actually on the fringes of the Las Vegas metro area and has a decent population of non-LDS voters. Kasich’s the favorite to top Trump based on the earliest returns, but I’m not ready to predict that Mitt Romney will award him the silver medal here quite yet.