How The March 22 Primary Elections Went Down

So far this year, Clinton’s map has resembled Barack Obama’s from 2008 as much as her own in 2008, but Arizona is one of the states she won both this year and in 2016. But let’s raise the bar a little higher. In which states have the Clintons gone 5-for-5? That means a win for Bill Clinton in the 1992 Democratic primary, and both the 1992 and 1996 general elections — and a win for Hillary Clinton in both 2008 and 2016. Arizona doesn’t qualify. Bill Clinton won it in the 1996 general election, but lost it in both the 1992 general election and primary. As far as I can tell, the only 5-for-5 Clinton states so far are Arkansas, Tennessee and Ohio. Several other states could potentially join them, however, where the Clintons are 4-for-4 and which haven’t voted yet in the Democratic primary yet this year. They include Kentucky, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

The Clinton campaign has done about a 180-degree turn over the last month and a half. After New Hampshire, some thought the Clinton campaign was in trouble. Clinton then won Nevada and really hasn’t looked back. Not only has her pledged delegate lead grown, but Trump’s delegate lead has blossomed at the same time. Trump may somehow end up being a strong general election nominee, but at this point he is even more disliked than Clinton, who isn’t adored by the general public herself. Clinton could also benefit from President Obama’s rising job approval ratings, which are now regularly topping 50 percent in the Gallup tracking poll. All in all, things seem to be turning Clinton’s way at the right time.

Dave noted a similarity between the Arizona and Florida votes in at least one retirement community, but I’d take the comparison a step further and say the two states have voted like each other in a number of recent primaries. Trump is getting roughly the same share of the vote (46 percent) in Arizona as he did in Florida. Clinton is getting 60 percent in Arizona and got 64 percent in Florida. In 2012, Romney got 46 percent in Florida and 47 percent in Arizona. In 2008, Clinton got 50 percent in both states.