How The March 22 Primary Elections Went Down

The Clinton campaign has done about a 180-degree turn over the last month and a half. After New Hampshire, some thought the Clinton campaign was in trouble. Clinton then won Nevada and really hasn’t looked back. Not only has her pledged delegate lead grown, but Trump’s delegate lead has blossomed at the same time. Trump may somehow end up being a strong general election nominee, but at this point he is even more disliked than Clinton, who isn’t adored by the general public herself. Clinton could also benefit from President Obama’s rising job approval ratings, which are now regularly topping 50 percent in the Gallup tracking poll. All in all, things seem to be turning Clinton’s way at the right time.

Dave noted a similarity between the Arizona and Florida votes in at least one retirement community, but I’d take the comparison a step further and say the two states have voted like each other in a number of recent primaries. Trump is getting roughly the same share of the vote (46 percent) in Arizona as he did in Florida. Clinton is getting 60 percent in Arizona and got 64 percent in Florida. In 2012, Romney got 46 percent in Florida and 47 percent in Arizona. In 2008, Clinton got 50 percent in both states.

Is Trump’s huge win in Arizona tonight because of counties on the Mexican border? Not necessarily. He’s doing well in border countries, but not any better or worse than elsewhere in the state. So far, Trump has 43 percent of the vote in highly populous Pima County (which contains Tucson), 49 percent in Yuma County, 45 percent in Santa Cruz County, and 49 percent in Cochise County. All those results are pretty similar to the 46 percent of the vote he has statewide.