How The March 22 Primary Elections Went Down

Dave noted a similarity between the Arizona and Florida votes in at least one retirement community, but I’d take the comparison a step further and say the two states have voted like each other in a number of recent primaries. Trump is getting roughly the same share of the vote (46 percent) in Arizona as he did in Florida. Clinton is getting 60 percent in Arizona and got 64 percent in Florida. In 2012, Romney got 46 percent in Florida and 47 percent in Arizona. In 2008, Clinton got 50 percent in both states.

Is Trump’s huge win in Arizona tonight because of counties on the Mexican border? Not necessarily. He’s doing well in border countries, but not any better or worse than elsewhere in the state. So far, Trump has 43 percent of the vote in highly populous Pima County (which contains Tucson), 49 percent in Yuma County, 45 percent in Santa Cruz County, and 49 percent in Cochise County. All those results are pretty similar to the 46 percent of the vote he has statewide.

Looking ahead on the Democratic side, I’d expect it to be a pretty good weekend for Sanders. While there really hasn’t been any polling in Alaska, Hawaii or Washington, Nate’s demographic model has Sanders favored in all three states by at least 17 percentage points. Obviously those projections come with a margin of error, but Sanders fans can take delight in what should be three victories. The problem, of course, is that Alaska and Hawaii are small states with few delegates up grabs, so it’ll be difficult for Sanders to make too big of a dent in Clinton’s delegate lead.