How The March 22 Primary Elections Went Down

One thing to keep in mind as we watch the returns on the Republican side tonight is that the calendar slows down considerably over the next month. Between now and April 19, we have only the Wisconsin (April 5) and New York (April 19) primaries. That means we’ll be moving to a state-to-state campaign. It’s not until April 26 that we have a night with multiple states voting at one time again.

Question

“Would a third party stand a chance given Trump and Clinton’s negative favorability?” — commenter Zach Dasher

Answer

In the abstract, it’s a very good opportunity for a third party candidate to run. The challenges are still manifest, however. For one thing, it’s a little late at this point to be assured of ballot access in all 50 states. But more importantly, it’s hard for a third-party candidate to build a winning coalition. You might think, “well, there are plenty of independents,” but independents don’t necessarily agree on all that much. Some of them are more Trumpian, some are more Bloombergian, and some are “closet partisans” who are independent in name only. So most of the time, a third-party candidate is going to take votes unevenly from the two major parties. And whichever major party she takes fewer votes from will tend to win with a fairly clear plurality.

As I noted earlier, the first unofficial returns from Utah suggest that Cruz is going to win by a lot. Perhaps more interestingly, the early returns also suggest that Trump will run in a very distant third place. Nate, I’m usually not one to try and predict general election results from primary outcomes, but Trump seems to have a big problem with Mormon voters, and they make up the majority of voters in Utah. It’s not just that they prefer Cruz and Kasich to him; it’s that they really don’t like Trump or what he stands for. While I think Trump would still carry the very Republican state of Utah in the general election, I’m not sure I can simply dismiss out-of-hand polls showing him trailing Clinton.