FiveThirtyEight
David Wasserman

Cruz just took his first lead in an Arizona county: it’s tiny Graham County, which also happens to have the highest Mormon percentage in the state. Unfortunately for Cruz, it’s too little, too late in that state.
David Wasserman

Here’s an interesting tweet from Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe: https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/712488624999141377 However, in Maricopa County, the earliest election day returns show Trump leading Cruz 5,011 to 2,847, a tiny bit tighter than the early votes but not vastly different as was the case in Louisiana a few weeks back. My guess is that Trump’s margin over Cruz will continue to shrink tonight, but that he’ll still end up with a solid double digit win.


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