FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

That high early vote share for Rubio in Arizona is devastating for Cruz, but let’s also remember that Trump is getting in the mid-40s, a number that would be hard to beat even if Rubio hadn’t gotten any votes.

Nate Silver

If The GOP Candidates Were Poker Hands

Answer

Ahh, great question (although would be better if Nevada were voting as part of “Western Tuesdsay” also). I think Trump would be something like ace-jack offsuit. Not a lot of grace, and has a lot of vulnerabilities against stronger hands, but it’ll get the job done by brute force when no one else has much going for them, and has enough “showdown value” that you can call a lot of bluffs. Ted Cruz would be a pair of 3’s. Not usually that useful in a crowded field, but can be fairly powerful as the field consolidates. John Kasich is 7-4-offsuit and should have folded before the flop.

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