FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

You keep hearing from people like me that Trump has a floor of about one-third of the vote. For instance, he averaged 35 percent in the Super Tuesday contests. Today, it’s the same story. His average vote percentage in the four states that voted today is 33 percent. The big difference from other days is that Cruz was able to coalesce a lot of the anti-Trump bloc, which led to at least two victories.

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