FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

To riff on what Harry said earlier: combined between the four Ohio border counties to have reported thus far in Kentucky, Trump has won 32 percent of the vote, Cruz 31 percent, Kasich 23 percent and Rubio 14 percent. (These percentages exclude votes for Ben Carson and other withdrawn candidates.) That’s interesting for Kasich heading into Ohio, but also perhaps an auspicious sign for Cruz since he’s nearly tied with Trump. There are no results in yet from highly populous Kenton County, home to Covington, a prominent Cincinnati suburb.

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