How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

Micah, here’s what I would have said going into the night:

• 4 wins — great night for Trump;
• 3 wins — status quo, in line with expectations;
• 2 wins — shows vulnerability, although Trump is still the frontrunner;
• 1 win — Trump may have major problems, although keep in mind these are small, quirky states;
• 0 wins — no more excuses; this means he somehow lost Louisiana — catastrophe.

Obviously the margins matter too, however. If Trump loses Kansas and Maine big but only narrowly wins Kentucky and Louisiana, that might be closer to the “1 win” than the “2 win” interpretation.