How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

You keep hearing from people like me that Trump has a floor of about one-third of the vote. For instance, he averaged 35 percent in the Super Tuesday contests. Today, it’s the same story. His average vote percentage in the four states that voted today is 33 percent. The big difference from other days is that Cruz was able to coalesce a lot of the anti-Trump bloc, which led to at least two victories.

As more results come in from Kentucky, an update on Ohio border counties: Cruz has 33 percent of the vote from counties that border Ohio, to 30 percent for Trump and 23 percent for Kasich (and 14 percent for Marco Rubio). Ohio looks as though it could be a three-way race on March 15.

To take one example of the huge split between election day returns and early votes in Louisiana: in Acadia Parish, Trump got 47 percent of the early vote, with 26 percent for Cruz and 19 percent for Rubio. In election day returns, however, it’s Trump 44, Cruz 41, Rubio 9. Trump often performs worse with late-deciding voters, but we haven’t seen anything this dramatic yet.