How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

As more results come in from Kentucky, an update on Ohio border counties: Cruz has 33 percent of the vote from counties that border Ohio, to 30 percent for Trump and 23 percent for Kasich (and 14 percent for Marco Rubio). Ohio looks as though it could be a three-way race on March 15.

To take one example of the huge split between election day returns and early votes in Louisiana: in Acadia Parish, Trump got 47 percent of the early vote, with 26 percent for Cruz and 19 percent for Rubio. In election day returns, however, it’s Trump 44, Cruz 41, Rubio 9. Trump often performs worse with late-deciding voters, but we haven’t seen anything this dramatic yet.

Trump just won Jefferson County, Kentucky, 30 percent to Cruz’s 29 percent. That’s bad news for Cruz’s Kentucky hopes. While Cruz is down just 4 percentage points, Trump’s margin in the overall vote remains fairly steady at around 5,000 votes. There’d have to be a late surge from somewhere for Cruz to win; otherwise, it’ll be close but no cigar.