How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

The margin separating Trump and Cruz in Kentucky is also shrinking. Trump is up just 4.6 percentage points, in part because Cruz won Fayette County (Lexington) 29 percent to 25 percent. Unfortunately for Cruz, both Kasich and Rubio got over 20 percent of the vote there, which may have held down Cruz’s margin. We’re still waiting on Jefferson County (Louisville).

Trump’s lead in Louisiana keeps narrowing every time I refresh the secretary of state’s webpage. It’s now down to 5.9 percentage points. Maybe Trump will hold on, but the networks should be rescinding their calls since there’s no way they’d have called it for Trump based on the information we have available now. There’s the risk of serious embarrassment for news outlets who are not picking up on this.

The very earliest returns in Louisiana, which were substantially composed of votes cast before election day, showed Trump at 48 percent, Cruz at 23 percent, and Rubio at 20 percent. Now? It’s Trump 43, Cruz 34 and Rubio 14, according to the Louisiana Secretary of State. The differences suggest a major gap between early votes and election-day returns, with Cruz surging in the past couple of days at the expense of both Trump and Rubio.