How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

As Rubio looks to have had another very bad night, it’s worth thinking about something we’ve brought up before: Is it possible that Rubio is actually too conservative for his own good? Obviously, the Republican Party is a conservative party. (Although Trump’s success suggests that the conservatism of GOP voters is complicated.) But Rubio is not quite in the moderate conservative “lane” that often proves to be fruitful in the GOP nomination process. Instead, Rubio is quite conservative indeed — at least based on his policy positions if not necessarily his temperament. So Rubio has to compete with Cruz for very conservative voters while moderate conservatives have had other options to consider. Kasich, in particular, is a little more conservative than he lets on but has run explicitly toward the center. In some ways, a race with Trump, Cruz and Kasich would create clearer differentiation between the candidates than one between Trump, Cruz and Rubio, which has left Rubio as a lot of voters’ second choice.

Just a pause-for-breath post as results and calls come in left and right. Republicans:

• Kansas — Called for Cruz, who won by 25 percentage points.
• Maine — Called for Cruz, who won by 13 points.
• Louisiana — Called for Trump by AP; he’s up big based on early votes.
• Kentucky — Still counting. Trump up by 9 points, although some of Cruz’s potentially better areas are outstanding.

Democrats:

• Kansas — Called for Sanders, no data on margin of victory yet.
• Nebraska — Called for Sanders, who’s up 10 percentage points with 75 percent reporting.
• Louisiana — Called for Clinton, who will win huge.

Is Trump doing well enough tonight to keep on track to win the nomination? Well, he won 9 delegates in Kansas and 9 delegates in Maine. In Maine, he came in on target, according to our projections. Trump fell far short of his 16 delegate target in Kansas, however. Cruz, on the other hand, finished 4 delegates ahead of his target in Kansas and 3 delegates ahead in Maine. What is clear is that Kansas and Maine were disasters for Rubio; he ended up 7 delegates short in Kansas and 10 delegates below his target in Maine. We’ll have to wait to see how Louisiana and Kentucky get split up.