How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

If you’re looking for hints ahead of the Ohio primary on March 15, look at the map of Kentucky tonight. You see that Kasich is pulling decent numbers along the Ohio/Kentucky border. He’s at 21 percent in Gallatin county and 26 percent in Campbell county. That could be good news for Kasich as we head into a must-win primary for him.

We’re excited to see if/when Maine is officially called for Cruz, and whether Trump’s early lead in Kentucky holds up. But remember, that doesn’t matter all that much from the standpoint of the delegate math. Maine and Kentucky are both strictly proportional, subject to a 5 percent threshold in Kentucky and a 10 percent one in Maine. Relatedly, Rubio is currently running below that 10 percent threshold in Maine, which would deprive him of any delegates from the state.

There’s clearly some geographic patterns to Cruz’s and Trump’s support in Kentucky. Trump is cleaning up in coal country in the eastern part of the state, while Cruz has gotten his best percentages from the two counties that have reported in the west. A lot more of coal country has reported than the west, so on that basis one would expect Trump’s 11-percentage-point lead to shrink. We are, of course, also waiting on the vote from Lexington and Louisville, which are big population centers.