How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

We’re excited to see if/when Maine is officially called for Cruz, and whether Trump’s early lead in Kentucky holds up. But remember, that doesn’t matter all that much from the standpoint of the delegate math. Maine and Kentucky are both strictly proportional, subject to a 5 percent threshold in Kentucky and a 10 percent one in Maine. Relatedly, Rubio is currently running below that 10 percent threshold in Maine, which would deprive him of any delegates from the state.

There’s clearly some geographic patterns to Cruz’s and Trump’s support in Kentucky. Trump is cleaning up in coal country in the eastern part of the state, while Cruz has gotten his best percentages from the two counties that have reported in the west. A lot more of coal country has reported than the west, so on that basis one would expect Trump’s 11-percentage-point lead to shrink. We are, of course, also waiting on the vote from Lexington and Louisville, which are big population centers.

Democrats are voting in Kansas, Nebraska and Louisiana today, and we still haven’t seen any results yet. But it’s worth taking a look at our state-by-state demographic benchmarks. They suggest that, if Clinton and Sanders were tied nationally, Sanders would win Kansas by 18 percentage points and Nebraska by 17 percentage points, but lose Louisiana by 28 percentage points. Keep in mind, however, that Sanders has fallen well behind pace in the delegate race and will need to not just match but beat those targets as we go forward through the primary calendar.