How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

There’s clearly some geographic patterns to Cruz’s and Trump’s support in Kentucky. Trump is cleaning up in coal country in the eastern part of the state, while Cruz has gotten his best percentages from the two counties that have reported in the west. A lot more of coal country has reported than the west, so on that basis one would expect Trump’s 11-percentage-point lead to shrink. We are, of course, also waiting on the vote from Lexington and Louisville, which are big population centers.

Democrats are voting in Kansas, Nebraska and Louisiana today, and we still haven’t seen any results yet. But it’s worth taking a look at our state-by-state demographic benchmarks. They suggest that, if Clinton and Sanders were tied nationally, Sanders would win Kansas by 18 percentage points and Nebraska by 17 percentage points, but lose Louisiana by 28 percentage points. Keep in mind, however, that Sanders has fallen well behind pace in the delegate race and will need to not just match but beat those targets as we go forward through the primary calendar.

The real thing we’re waiting for as the votes come in from Kentucky is Fayette County (Lexington) and especially Jefferson County (Louisville). A strong margin in those counties for Cruz could tip the state in his direction, but Trump will likely win the state if he carries both counties.