How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

Democrats are voting in Kansas, Nebraska and Louisiana today, and we still haven’t seen any results yet. But it’s worth taking a look at our state-by-state demographic benchmarks. They suggest that, if Clinton and Sanders were tied nationally, Sanders would win Kansas by 18 percentage points and Nebraska by 17 percentage points, but lose Louisiana by 28 percentage points. Keep in mind, however, that Sanders has fallen well behind pace in the delegate race and will need to not just match but beat those targets as we go forward through the primary calendar.

The real thing we’re waiting for as the votes come in from Kentucky is Fayette County (Lexington) and especially Jefferson County (Louisville). A strong margin in those counties for Cruz could tip the state in his direction, but Trump will likely win the state if he carries both counties.

Although the margin of Cruz’s win in Kansas is a big deal — with all results reported, he beat Trump 48 percent to 23 percent — his performance in Maine might be even more surprising. Decision Desk HQ has now called Maine for Cruz — in fact, it looks like Cruz could win by some margin — although the networks haven’t yet. When I wrote about Maine a few days ago, I said it was unpredictable (that part looks smart) but mentioned Kasich, not Cruz, as the candidate to keep an eye on (that part doesn’t look so smart). Cruz couldn’t have won Maine just by winning evangelicals, since it has relatively few of them (although more than other parts of New England). Cruz also seems to have made inroads with a relatively broad spectrum of conservatives: libertarian-ish voters who nearly gave Ron Paul a win their four years ago; working-class voters Down East. If this all sounds a bit vague, it’s because there are neither exit polls in Maine nor detailed county-by-county results yet. But it doesn’t make Cruz’s performance any less impressive.