FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

Although Kentucky is officially holding caucuses, they are functioning much more like a primary than caucuses normally do. The polls were open for six hours, and there were no speeches allowed. That might be part of the reason Trump may do better in Kentucky than in Kansas or Maine.
Nate Silver

Trump won overwhelmingly in “coal country” in far western Virginia and far northeast Tennessee, so it’s not surprising that he did really well in the Kentucky county most representative of coal country to have reported so far: Clay County, which gave 58 percent of its vote to Trump and 23 percent to Cruz. Coal country might be enough to tip Kentucky to Trump, even if he and Cruz run fairly evenly throughout the rest of the state.
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