How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

Trump won overwhelmingly in “coal country” in far western Virginia and far northeast Tennessee, so it’s not surprising that he did really well in the Kentucky county most representative of coal country to have reported so far: Clay County, which gave 58 percent of its vote to Trump and 23 percent to Cruz. Coal country might be enough to tip Kentucky to Trump, even if he and Cruz run fairly evenly throughout the rest of the state.

Micah, here’s what I would have said going into the night:

• 4 wins — great night for Trump;
• 3 wins — status quo, in line with expectations;
• 2 wins — shows vulnerability, although Trump is still the frontrunner;
• 1 win — Trump may have major problems, although keep in mind these are small, quirky states;
• 0 wins — no more excuses; this means he somehow lost Louisiana — catastrophe.

Obviously the margins matter too, however. If Trump loses Kansas and Maine big but only narrowly wins Kentucky and Louisiana, that might be closer to the “1 win” than the “2 win” interpretation.