How The States Voted On Semi-Super Saturday

Micah, here’s what I would have said going into the night:

• 4 wins — great night for Trump;
• 3 wins — status quo, in line with expectations;
• 2 wins — shows vulnerability, although Trump is still the frontrunner;
• 1 win — Trump may have major problems, although keep in mind these are small, quirky states;
• 0 wins — no more excuses; this means he somehow lost Louisiana — catastrophe.

Obviously the margins matter too, however. If Trump loses Kansas and Maine big but only narrowly wins Kentucky and Louisiana, that might be closer to the “1 win” than the “2 win” interpretation.

So let’s say Cruz wins Maine, as Harry suspects will happen. If Trump wins Kentucky and Louisiana, won’t the results today not seem so bad for him?

There are reports that Cruz has carried York County in Maine by a small margin. If that turns out to be true, it seems likely that Cruz will pull out the win. York was a fairly good county for Romney in 2012 and is not as rural, where Cruz tends to do best, as the rest of Maine.