That’s A Wrap
We’re tired. Our pets are tired. We’re going to sleep.
But that doesn’t mean the election nerdery will stop. Nathaniel has a rundown of where things stand in the wee early hours of Wednesday just below. And Nate will have an overview of Tuesday’s voting in the morning. So if you followed along all night, get some rest and come back then. If you’re just checking in now, scroll below to see how everything unfolded in real time.
And, as always, thank you for joining us.
Shed a tear, dear reader; we are winding down our live blog. In case you missed them, here are the key results from tonight:
- The world appears safe from top-two mischief in California. Although it’s still possible for two Republicans to finish in the top two in California’s 10th and 48th congressional districts, the smart money is on the Democratic candidates gaining votes from here on out. And while it looks like Dianne Feinstein will face fellow Democrat Kevin de León in the U.S. Senate race, the races the 39th District and the 49th District are going to be regular Democrat-on-Republican contests, as will the race for governor, where Democrat Gavin Newsom and Republican John Cox advance to the runoff. The presence of a Republican in the governor’s runoff avoids the worst-case scenario for the GOP: getting shut out of both top-of-the-ticket races in California, which could depress Republican turnout in competitive House races statewide.
- In Montana, we finally learned that Republican Matt Rosendale will face Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. But because the state counts votes really slowly, the Democratic primary for U.S. House is still too close to call between Kathleen Williams and John Heenan.
- New Jersey Democrats got all the candidates they wanted for a handful of competitive House races (much to the chagrin of progressives, in the 2nd District especially), but there were some upsets on the Republican side, like John McCann’s win in the 5th District. However, the GOP did nominate Assemblyman Jay Webber in the 11th District, giving them a good shot at defending that seat.
- In New Mexico, Deb Haaland won the 1st Congressional District, putting her in great position to become the first Native American woman elected to Congress. Democrats were also cheered by the GOP’s nomination of die-hard conservative Yvette Herrell in the sleeper Democratic target of NM-02.
- A pair of competitive Iowa primaries fizzled, as Fred Hubbell easily won the Democratic nomination for governor and Cindy Axne cruised to the congressional nomination in the 3rd District. Hubbell is wealthy and is likely to be a strong candidate for Team Blue in the fall, while Axne’s rout was another example of the success that women have enjoyed in Democratic primaries this year.
- In South Dakota, Rep. Kristi Noem won a tight Republican primary for governor. She’ll probably be replaced in the House by moderate Republican Dusty Johnson, who beat two farther-right rivals.
- And in Alabama, tune in again in July, when Rep. Martha Roby faces former Rep. Bobby Bright in a runoff likely to focus on Roby’s un-endorsement of President Trump in 2016. It’ll be a rematch of the 2010 general election.
Latest results in the California House race for district 49 from ABC News:
Latest results in the California House race for district 48 from ABC News:
Just a summary of where we stand with the issue of 118,000 voters being left off the rolls in Los Angeles County: Villaraigosa is calling for the polls to be kept open until Friday. That seems unlikely, though we’ll see what happens — he’s working from a pretty big deficit anyhow, so it might not help him get into that coveted second place slot. We’re also still not sure what exactly the computer error is that elections officials say caused a printing error that left voters off the rolls.
Latest results in the California House race for district 39 from ABC News:
Latest results in the California House race for district 10 from ABC News:
Some more calls from the AP 
- Republican Christine Russell and Democrat Anna Eshoo will advance to November election in California’s 18th Congressional District.
- Democrat Jared Huffman and Republican Dale Mensing will advance in California’s 2nd.
- Republican Doug LaMalfa will advance in California’s 1st.
- Democrat Susan Davis will advance in California’s 53rd.
- Democrat Nanette Barragan will advance in California’s 44th.
- Democrat Jimmy Panetta will advance in California’s 20th.
- Democrat Jerry McNerney and Republican Marla Livengood will advance in California’s 9th.
- Democrat Mike Thompson will advance in California’s 5th.
- Democrat Adam Schiff will advance in California’s 28th.
- Republican Devin Nunes will advance in California’s 22nd.
I spoke too soon. The secretary of state’s site is back up with state Senate recall results, and it looks like voters want to recall Newman by a 62-38 margin and replace him with Republican Ling Ling Chang. That would eliminate Democrats’ state Senate supermajority. Since we seem to have avoided major top-two drama elsewhere, that might be the most important election result of the night.
Latest results in the Montana Senate race from ABC News:
There’s also a high-profile recall election in California tonight (because how could it be election night in California without a recall?). Democratic state Sen. Josh Newman was being targeted for his vote in favor of California’s new gas tax; if he’s removed, Democrats would lose their two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate. Originally, the secretary of state posted results suggesting Newman was going to lose, but weirdly they just zeroed out their results page.
Latest results in the California House race for district 48 from ABC News:
A little more news out of California, though not from one of the big races: Judge Aaron Persky, who gave a lenient sentence of six months in jail to a Stanford swimmer who raped an unconscious woman, has been recalled from office.
For all the pre-election hand-wringing about Democrats — and Republicans! — getting shut out of a major race in November, it may not happen at all. For governor, Democrat Newsom (34 percent) and Republican Cox (26 percent) look like safe bets to advance. Democrats look well-positioned in the 39th and 49th congressional districts. Things are dicey in the 10th and 49th, but Democrats currently have a 1- or 2-point lead for second place there, and those leads will probably widen as more ballots are counted. The one place where a shutout seems likely is in the U.S. Senate race, where Kevin de León (D) and James Bradley (R) are currently tied with 10 percent, with (as I mentioned) tons of Democratic-leaning counties yet to report.
Galen, one of the biggest challenges Nancy Pelosi will face is that a handful of Democrats running in competitive races have already said they’d vote against her for party leader. The most high-profile example was probably Conor Lamb in the Pennsylvania 18th special election, but he’s not alone. (Pelosi has said she’s not taking it personally.) But either way, even if she could win election for speaker or minority leader, I don’t know if she’ll want to.
I have a question if anyone wants to entertain it: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi just made it through to the general election (obviously). What are the chances that she keeps her job if Democrats take the House in the fall?
Latest results in the Montana Senate race from ABC News:
We’re mostly all California news on this site right now, but this, from the Daily Mail’s politics editor, made me LOL:
Today was also a special election for mayor of San Francisco, after the unexpected death of incumbent Ed Lee. The first results look good for London Breed, an African-American woman who leads the city’s Board of Supervisors, but San Francisco uses instant-runoff voting, so these numbers will get rearranged.
Leah got at my thinking there: I think the JV debate “innovation” we got in 2016 is here to stay. Over.
If they do those again, I will quit.
Maybe the real question is who will be in the kiddy debate.
Debate stage, y’all.
Over.
I feel like we will buzz about 25 people, but there will actually be like 10-12 who run in earnest.
There are already more than 25 in the race! The question is if they will all be there once the debates start.
OMG, you guys are deluded. So, so far over. There will be 25 Democrats in that race, if not more.
Under.
Under.
Under.
Under.
OK, it feels like we’re in a bit a lull as we wait for more California votes, so let’s quickly talk about a different primary … 2020’s Democratic presidential primary. Awhile ago I tweeted this:
And I was surprised that so many people picked “under.” So, I’ll throw it to this group: Over or under?
Calls for days!
- Democrat Nancy Pelosi will advance to the November election in California’s 12th.
- Republican Kevin McCarthy will advance in California’s 23rd.
- Democrat Raul Ruiz will advance in California’s 36th.
- Republican Russell Lambert and Democrat Lou Correa will advance in California’s 46th.
- Democrat Maxine Waters will advance in California’s 43rd.
Republicans are also facing the possibility of a lockout in the California Lieutenant Governor’s race. Kounalakis (D) leads at 23 percent, with Hernandez (D) and Harris (R) tied at around 20 percent, with 16 percent of the vote counted.
At one point, it seemed like we shouldn’t rule out Democrat Ami Bera facing a tough race in California’s 7th District. At this point, though, Inside Elections has it rated as Solid Democratic. And tonight’s results don’t change that. The GOP nominee, Andrew Grant, had just $59,000 cash on hand as of May 16, compared to the congressman’s $1.4 million.
Republicans face the possibility of a lockout in the U.S. Senate race, where Feinstein leads with 44 percent, but De León (D) and Bradley (R) are roughly tied at 10 percent (15 percent of votes have been counted).
Democrat Ami Bera and Republican Andrew Grant will advance to the November election in California’s 7th, per the AP.
Let’s take a break from top-two mania and check in on some California races that are essentially just normal Democratic primaries. In the 45th District, GOP Rep. Mimi Walters (currently at 54 percent of the vote) has already won a runoff slot, according to the AP. But it’s a tight race for second between Democrats Katie Porter (20 percent), who was endorsed by Elizabeth Warren, and Dave Min (17 percent), who is more establishment-friendly. And in the 25th District, Bryan Caforio (20 percent) leads Katie Hill (18 percent) for the right to face GOP Rep. Steve Knight, who leads with 55 percent.
Here are the CA districts where Democrats are still in danger of a top-two lockout:
- The 50th District: Hunter (R) is at 48 percent, with Campa-Najjar (D) at 15 percent, Butner (D) at 14 percent, and Wells (R) at 12 percent. (14 percent of the polls have reported)
- The 48th District: Rohrabacher (R) is at 30 percent, with one Democrat (Keirstead) and one Republican (Baugh) tied around 18 percent. (Partially in Los Angeles County)
- The 10th District: Denham (R) at 38 percent, with a Democrat (Harder) at 15 percent and a Republican (Howze) at 14 percent. (38 percent have reported.)
- And Senate District 32: Heavy Democratic lean, but eight Democrats are splitting the vote. (Partially in Los Angeles County)
But with so many mail-in votes still to be counted, a lot could change.
Latest results in the California House race for district 49 from ABC News:
Latest results in the California House race for district 48 from ABC News:
I think that’s fair, Nathaniel. But unless things change, it looks like it’s going to be a good night for Republican women in California. Young Kim and Diane Harkey are leading in the 39th and 49th Districts, which are both top-tier races for November. Doesn’t look as promising for Democratic women in California, but it’s probably still too early to tell.
Political coverage over the past week or so has really focused on the possibility of shutouts in California. We are a ways away from knowing whether that will happen, but I do wonder if all that media coverage encouraged more strategic voting and actually made shutouts less likely.
Democrat Gavin Newsom will advance to the November election for California governor, per the AP.
I’m trying to hold off on making any grand California pronouncements. The reason? There are still no votes reporting from San Francisco or Santa Clara (Silicon Valley) counties and relatively few from Los Angeles, which are obviously three pretty big vote banks. That means that current statewide results are skewed toward Republicans.
The Villaraigosa campaign is calling on L.A. County to keep polls open through Friday because of a computer error that left 118,000 voters off the rolls. Election law expert Rick Hasen says that’s unprecedented. We’ll see what happens.