The FiveThirtyEight Team Goes To Iowa

DES MOINES — The Iowa caucuses are just under three weeks away, but some Iowans are already feeling the pressure of preparing for the big night. I sat down for lunch at the Des Moines Embassy Club with Jeffrey Goetz, a 59-year-old attorney who has run or co-chaired his Westbury precinct caucus every year since he first moved to Iowa from California in 2001, to discuss his plans. Goetz said he hadn’t previously been too involved in the political scene beyond yelling at his TV, but upon moving to Iowa he discovered that one of his partners was the chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. Goetz went along to a fundraiser, where he was introduced to then-Gov. Tom Vilsack and Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson, his Waterbury neighbor. “I’m thinking, having just come from California, I’d have to be what, a $10,000-a-plate contributor to meet the governor, and here the lieutenant governor lives in my neighborhood?” Goetz said. He’s been involved in local politics ever since. In past years, he has handwritten letters to every registered Democrat and independent (differently worded letters, mind you) in his precinct to invite them to the caucus. But this year, he’s just now starting to prepare, and is planning to use a printing shop. “I’m probably a little bit behind,” he said. After making arrangements for the parking permits and barricades that’ll be needed at the caucus, he’ll fine-tune this year’s letter. “This time, I’m gonna outsource it.”