The FiveThirtyEight Team Goes To Iowa

TOLEDO — The Democratic race has mostly been a two-way affair between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, but the tightening of the polls in Iowa means that the third wheel in this race, Martin O’Malley, is becoming more important. Why? O’Malley is currently at 5.1 percent in our polling average, which is far greater than Clinton’s 1.8 percentage point advantage over Sanders in that same polling average. Iowa Democratic caucus rules dictate that a candidate needs a minimum of 15 percent support at a caucus site to remain viable (some sites have a higher threshold). When a candidate does not reach that percentage, his or her supporters must give their votes to their second choice. Even in FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which gives Clinton a 7.6 percentage point advantage over Sanders because of her overwhelming lead in the endorsement race, O’Malley’s 6.8 percent is nearly equal to Clinton’s lead. Most recent polls have not asked O’Malley supporters whom their second choice would be, but there are some indications that they favor Sanders. That’s why we need to keep an eye on O’Malley, even if he can’t win. His supporters could end up paving the way to a much closer finish than expected.

GRINNELL — Greetings from the Frontier Cafe! We’ve just come from a Jeb Bush town hall at the firearm accessories manufacturer Brownells and have hunkered down over late afternoon steak, eggs and something Micah calls a “breakfast salad” that I’m not going to get into here. As you might guess, the Bush event’s location was not chosen without some thought — the four-star admiral who introduced the former Florida governor made sure to mention duck hunting with his Navy Seal son-in-laws. But the tone of the town hall was anything but an in-your-face gun rights bonanza. All of us were struck by how Jeb was almost professorial in his manner when answering questions. And he is certainly not apologizing for that: “I am a serious candidate,” he said, “I don’t believe in bombast.” This might not be the right year for seriousness given that Donald Trump is the leading Republican candidate. (Trump, I will note, is the only other candidate whom Bush mentioned by name during the hour-long event — it was a little bit like watching Captain Ahab chase his white whale.) But the audience was picking up what Jeb was putting down. They skewed older and were more sedate than, say, my most recent book club meeting, and we saw several scribbling notes, taking seriously their birthright vetting of presidential candidates. It was, all in all, a well-attended event with engaged attendees asking about how Bush would advance disability rights (two questions on that), what his “market-based solution for climate change” might be, and whether or not he would work to overturn Roe v. Wade if elected president. There weren’t many moments when the crowd was observably roused, but one did come, unexpectedly, when Bush mentioned that tonight’s State of the Union address would be President Obama’s last. “That wasn’t meant to be an applause line,” he said. “But I understand the sentiment.”