The FiveThirtyEight Team Goes To Iowa

Our forecasts for the Iowa Republican caucuses and Iowa Democratic caucuses are now live. (We also have primary forecasts for New Hampshire.) Pick your poison: We’re running one version of our primary forecasts based on state polls alone and another that also accounts for national polls and endorsements. Read more about how it all works.

AMES — All this week we’re keeping an eye on how candidates, the media and voters are using polls. This morning’s subject: Hillary Clinton. I’ll cut the suspense — she did not cite a poll. But the latest numbers on Clinton vs. Bernie Sanders (which Nate broke down earlier) certainly set the tone for her speech to a mix of students and local supporters at Iowa State University. And reporters who’ve been covering Clinton throughout this election said today marked a shift in her approach to the Vermont senator. This morning, Clinton rolled out an endorsement from the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, whose president introduced her in Ames. She then offered her broadest critique yet of Sanders, repeatedly mentioning his voting record on gun control. I still hold out hope that we’ll catch a candidate going deep into the cross-tabs at some point this week. But it’s clear that the Clinton camp is watching the polls — and, more importantly, watching how the media is watching the polls — if not citing them explicitly. CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post referred incorrectly to the venue for Clinton’s speech. It was Iowa State University, not the University of Iowa.

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