MILE MARKER 166, I-80 E —We’ll be debuting our Iowa and New Hampshire forecasts soon, and they’re coming at a good time for Bernie Sanders, who has had a strong run of polls so far this week.
In Iowa, in fact, two recent polls show Sanders narrowly ahead of Clinton. Several others show Clinton with a small lead. The shift is noteworthy, however, given that Clinton hadn’t trailed in an Iowa poll since September and had roughly a 15-point lead in the Iowa polling average at the end of December.
It’s probably worth being at least a little bit skeptical of a polling swing like this one without any major news events to precipitate it. But here’s the thing: You can make the case that Sanders was underachieving in Iowa before. As we’ve been saying since July, it’s entirely plausible that Sanders could win the state.
From a 30,000-foot level, the demographics of the Democratic caucuses here should look pretty similar to those of the New Hampshire primary. Meaning there will be lots of white liberals. And while Sanders doesn’t have the advantage in Iowa of hailing from a neighboring state, as he does in New Hampshire, he has some other things working for him here: lots of college students and caucuses that rely heavily on voter enthusiasm, which could make his ground game more important. Plus, Iowa was a tough state for Clinton in 2008 (while New Hampshire was a good one for her).
Young people listen to Bernie Sanders at a campaign stop at a community center in Perry on Monday.
Danny Wilcox Frazier / VII
Harry Enten
Even if Ted Cruz wins Iowa, there's New Hampshire
DES MOINES — The consensus is that Ted Cruz is more likely to win the Republican Iowa caucus than Donald Trump. The problem for Cruz, of course, is that winning here does not mean that he’s going to win New Hampshire or the nomination (see: Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum). Indeed, a close look at the polls indicates that Cruz’s coalition is good in Iowa and not good at all in New Hampshire.
Cruz has basically no support from moderate Republicans. He earned just 9 percent from Iowa moderates in a Marist poll conducted last week and 7 percent from Iowa moderates/liberals in a Quinnipiac poll out this week. Cruz is doing well in the Hawkeye State because he took 36 percent and 37 percent from conservatives in those surveys, respectively. That could be enough for him to win the caucus given that about 84 percent of caucus-goers in 2012 identified as conservative compared to just 17 percent who were moderate or liberal.
But if Cruz’s weakness with moderates and liberals continues in New Hampshire, it will likely doom him there. Why? Moderates and liberals made up 47 percent of New Hampshire primary voters in 2012. That means Cruz would do about 10 percentage points worse in New Hampshire even if he got the same support from each ideological group there that he currently gets in Iowa.
Donald Trump’s Iowa coalition, on the other hand, is far better suited for New Hampshire. Trump was at 28 percent among moderates in the Marist survey and 37 percent among moderates and liberals in the Quinnipiac poll. Trump isn’t doing too badly among conservatives either, with 21 percent and 28 percent in those polls, respectively.
This ideological split helps to explain why Trump is currently close to 30 percent and leading in the New Hampshire polls while Cruz is well back with closer to 10 percent.
