My view before tonight was that Bernie Sanders’s campaign was in trouble if he lost Iowa to Hillary Clinton. But what if Sanders loses and the final margin separating the candidates is just 1 percentage point or so, as the current vote count has it now?
That could matter for Sanders, to the extent that it changes the spin coming out of the event. The media may bill the race as essentially having been a tie, especially if the state isn’t officially called for either candidate for another hour or two. And considering how far ahead Sanders is in New Hampshire, the scoreboard could begin to look pretty good for him after two weeks.
And yet: There was not yet any proof in tonight’s results that Sanders can expand his performance beyond his base of white and liberal voters, which are plentiful in Iowa and New Hampshire but less so elsewhere. Instead, Sanders’s supporters seem to have been exactly who we thought they were. Sanders did really well among “very liberal” voters and extraordinarily well among young voters, but not very well among moderates, women or older voters.
So, overall, a 1- or 2-point loss for Sanders might wind up being something of a wash. But if he pulls ahead of Clinton here at the end, that’s a different story, of course.
